In the BCS era, one loss meant a season with national title aspirations was mostly over. In the four-team College Football Playoff era, no two-loss team ever made the field.
But now, with the Playoff field at 12, two losses still won’t outweigh what the most accomplished teams of the first half of the season have done.
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What often goes overlooked is the reward for winning a game like Oregon did over Ohio State in a top-three showdown on Saturday, or Texas did against Oklahoma this weekend and at Michigan early this season.
The Ducks and Horns are at the season’s midpoint with big-time wins and no losses. And what winning quality games offers is the luxury of knowing one bad night can’t dramatically change the trajectory of a season in which a team has already accomplished a lot.
To miss the Playoff now for teams like Oregon and Texas — and include Penn State after its comeback win Saturday at USC — it’ll take a total collapse. Top-ranked Texas should have wiggle room whatever happens against No. 5 Georgia this week (which could come in handy considering a regular-season schedule that concludes at rival Texas A&M).
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After a big win, there’s a good shot a coach will be asked: What does this mean for your team? It’s a good question because it can go any number of ways.
I’ve never heard a coach answer it by saying, “Well, we can lose a game now (probably two), and all our dreams are still alive.” That’s the reality of the new era, though.
There’s massive value in that.
This season — especially Week 6 — has shown us that misfortune is waiting just around the corner for almost anyone. What you win in a week of big games like we saw on Saturday is peace of mind, knowing if disaster becomes an unwanted guest in the weeks ahead, it doesn’t derail your season.
Each week, Bubble Watch will examine who’s in, who’s out and who’s somewhere in the middle leading up to the first 12-team College Football Playoff. It’s a realistic snapshot of the field, not a projection. The five highest-ranked conference champions will get an automatic Playoff berth. Find Austin Mock’s model’s bracket projections here.
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ACC
Clemson continues its run of dominance after the Georgia nightmare to begin the season. The way the Tigers and Miami are playing, it’s hard to see both teams not making the field, barring a collapse.
Pitt held on at home against Cal and continues to hover just outside the bracket, cracking the top 20 in both polls this week.
Big Ten
| Teams | |
|---|---|
Definitely in | |
Probably in | |
In the mix | |
Keep an eye on | |
Ohio State’s loss at Oregon wasn’t enough to bump it from the “definitely in” tier, but it does make its margin of error thinner. The Buckeyes travel to Penn State on Nov. 2 and should be favored against Indiana and Michigan, but the matchups are anything but gimmes.
Indiana hosts Nebraska this week, and the Huskers would represent IU’s best win of the season. The Hoosiers will be a real factor in the Playoff discussion with a convincing win. If they keep it rolling against Washington and Michigan State, an ensuing win over Michigan would make them a clear top-10 team.
USC has fallen out of the conversation completely after a third close loss, After beating LSU in the season opener, this team could easily be 6-0. Instead, it finds itself at 3-3 (and LSU has won five straight since).
Penn State’s margin for error looks massive after a comeback road win at USC. The Nittany Lions host Ohio State but will get two weeks to prepare for Wisconsin first.
Big 12
| Teams | |
|---|---|
Definitely in | |
Probably in | |
In the mix | |
Keep an eye on | |
The Big 12 looks more like a league capable of earning multiple bids by the week. Iowa State, once a sleeper pick to win the conference, is still in pole position in this wide-open race, but BYU looks like the main contender after being picked to finish 13th. Now, the Cougars are ranked 13th nationally and sitting at 6-0. Each team looks capable of securing an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the Big 12. Kansas State and Texas Tech are hanging around, with KSU surviving a thriller in Boulder to knock Colorado out of this week’s Bubble Watch.
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And Arizona State, picked last in the league, beat preseason favorite Utah, and looks like the most improved team in the Power 4.
SEC
Ole Miss’ second loss in three weeks puts the Rebels on the outside of the field. Bama, Georgia and Tennessee all look vulnerable. Alabama needed late-game dramatics to survive South Carolina’s upset bid, and Georgia was far from dominant against a Mississippi State team that hasn’t been very competitive against FBS competition.
Tennessee is still likely in the bracket if the season ended today, but its issues along the offensive line and lack of consistent explosiveness in the passing game have inspired plenty of skepticism about how good the Vols actually are now that the schedule is growing more difficult.
LSU and Texas A&M are atop the standings but are still hovering just outside the actual bracket. Both have plenty of opportunities to prove they can sustain SEC title runs when the league is decided in late November.
Group of 5
| Teams | |
|---|---|
Definitely in | |
Probably in | |
In the mix | |
Keep an eye on | |
Boise State was already in the driver’s seat. But Oregon’s win over Ohio State made its solid resume even better, considering its three-point loss to the Ducks early this season in Eugene. The Broncos might need it. Army and Navy are threatening to go undefeated and might meet in the AAC title game. This week, the teams appeared in the poll at the same time for the first time since 1960. Both still face Notre Dame.
But if Boise is sitting at 12-1 at season’s end with a MWC title, a win over Wazzu, perhaps two wins over UNLV and its lone loss on the road at Oregon, the Broncos would be hard to deny a spot in the field.
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Others
| Teams | |
|---|---|
Definitely in | |
Probably in | |
In the mix | |
Keep an eye on |
I told you to not count Notre Dame out of the Playoff after the loss to Northern Illinois. The Irish have been rock solid since, demolishing Purdue, Miami (Ohio) and Stanford and earning a solid win over a Louisville team that’s in the ACC’s second tier. As more and more teams above them lose, the Irish keep sneaking into the bracket.
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They graduated to “definitely in” this week, and our Austin Mock projected the Irish to have a 64 percent chance to make the field.
Their strength of schedule has been all over the map. Georgia Tech has been in and out of the polls. Florida State and USC dropped out. But now Army and Navy are both ranked. It’s mostly evened out. The Irish are a no-doubter at 11-1 and still have a good shot to make the field if they stumble down the stretch.
(Photo of Oregon teammates Roger Saleapaga (No. 83) and Jeffrey Bassa: Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)
