Election 2024 Polls: Biden vs. Trump (Archived)
Election 2024 Polls: Biden vs. Trump (Archived)
Arrows to the left indicate polling gains for Biden; to the right, for Trump.
| July 21 margin | polls | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | Trump +3 | 62 | |
| Minn. | Biden +4 | 0 | |
| Va. | Biden +1 | 5 | |
| Wis. | Trump +4 | 9 | |
| Pa. | Trump +5 | 11 | |
| Mich. | Trump +5 | 8 | |
| N.C. | Trump +6 | 4 | |
| Ariz. | Trump +7 | 7 | |
| Ga. | Trump +7 | 7 | |
| Nev. | Trump +7 | 6 |
In the weeks after the debate, Biden’s position deteriorated in three states crucial to his re-election — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — as well as in other swing states where he had already been trailing by four to five points.
In the Biden vs. Trump matchup, both candidates had states they could count on, but they needed more to get to 270 electoral votes. There were nine key states in the middle where the vote was close in 2020 or polling was close this year.
If the polls had changed, or missed, in Biden’s favor
Biden had a path: He trailed in key states, but a shift or polling miss in his favor would not have been impossible, though of course it was not guaranteed.
Biden’s path to the presidency narrowed as his standing in the swing-state polls dropped, most likely a factor in his decision to drop out of the race.
It’s normal for polls not to match the final results, sometimes by considerable amounts. The ranges in this chart represent the magnitude of each state’s biggest polling miss in recent elections, shown in relation to the final Biden vs. Trump polling averages.
| Biggest recent polling miss | ||
|---|---|---|
| Minn. | 6 pts. (2016) | Range of polling miss
|
| Va. | 3 pts. (2012) | |
| Wis. | 9 pts. (2020) | |
| Pa. | 5 pts. (2022) | |
| Mich. | 6 pts. (2022) | |
| N.C. | 6 pts. (2016) | |
| Ariz. | 3 pts. (2022) | |
| Ga. | 2 pts. (2016) | |
| Nev. | 4 pts. (2012) |
Might the polls have been wrong, or have underestimated support for Biden? It’s possible, but his deficit was nearing the edges of the biggest polling misses in recent elections. Assuming the polls did not change before Election Day, he would have needed the polling margins in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan to miss by at least five points in his favor.
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Before bowing out of the race, Biden had been trailing Trump in the polls for essentially 10 straight months.
We calculated averages for polls that asked voters to choose between Biden and Trump, and for polls that included Kennedy. (Many polls did both.) Here’s a comparison of the averages, nationally and in key states.
Third-party candidates present particular challenges for pollsters, and they can be a significant factor in elections. Here you can get a sense of how Robert F. Kennedy Jr. might have affected support for the major candidates. Just know that, historically, most polls have significantly overstated support for third-party candidates.
About our polling averages
Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.
We also evaluate whether each pollster: Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling
These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology.
The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.
Credits
By Cam Baker, Laura Bejder Jensen, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, Andrew Park, Jaymin Patel, Ethan Singer and James Thomas.
