Election 2024 Polls: Virginia
Election 2024 Polls: Virginia
Virginia polling average
The presidential race just keeps getting tighter. With three weeks to go, The New York Times’s polling average shows Kamala Harris and Donald Trump essentially tied across the seven key battleground states. It’s hard to think of any election when so many critical states were so close in the polls at this stage. Updated Oct. 14
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Polls by “select pollsters” are shown with a diamond. These pollsters have backgrounds that tend to mean they are more reliable. Also, polls that were conducted by or for partisan organizations are labeled, as they often release only results that are favorable to their cause.
This chart shows how the polling margin in Virginia has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump.
In late July and August, Harris made steady gains. Those gains seem to have slowed, suggesting she’s mostly consolidated her potential support. Any additional gains won’t be easy. If even a consensus debate victory can’t move the needle, it’s hard to see what would give either candidate a meaningful edge in the polls over the final stretch. Updated Sept. 23
About our polling averages
Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.
We also evaluate whether each pollster: Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling
These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology.
The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here.
Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and a single electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district. (Maine has two congressional districts, and Nebraska has three.) Historical election results for these districts are calculated based on votes cast within the current boundaries of the district.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.
Credits
By Cam Baker, Laura Bejder Jensen, Ademola Bello, Dana Chiueh, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, Andrew Park, Jaymin Patel, Ethan Singer and James Thomas.
