Crime on the Decline

In the chaotic early months of the Covid pandemic, when the U.S. was also going through the aftermath of George Floyd’s murder, violent crime rose across the country. Murders in 2020 increased at the fastest rate since national statistics began in 1960. Other crimes, like shootings and car thefts, also increased.

The surge in violence left some experts worried that the U.S. might be entering another era of high crime, similar to that of the 1960s through the ’90s.

But the data over the past year has offered a much more optimistic picture. The number of murders in U.S. cities fell by more than 12 percent — which would be the biggest national decline on record. The spike that started in 2020 now looks more like a blip, and the murder rate is lower than it was during the 1970s, ’80s and ’90s. The recent data also suggests that the violent-crime rate in 2023 was near its lowest level in more than 50 years, as Jeff Asher, a crime analyst, wrote for his newsletter.

Fading shocks

To understand why murders and other crimes have declined, it’s useful to look at the likely causes of the increase: the pandemic and the fallout from Floyd’s killing by the police.

Covid, of course, upended American life in 2020 and 2021, including in ways that affected crime: Police officers stopped some forms of in-person contact, and more illness contributed to staffing shortages at police departments. Schools, which help keep teens out of trouble, shut down. Some social services and other anti-violence programs also had to scale back.

Covid does not explain everything. Many other countries did not report increases in their murder rates during the pandemic. Perhaps something unique to the U.S., such as its abundance of guns, made the country more vulnerable to the disruptions of Covid.

Regardless, the reality is this: During Covid, murders increased. As life has returned to normal, they have decreased.

The second explanation involves Floyd’s death. High-profile police killings typically strain relations between law enforcement and the public. This leads some officers to pull back from activities that can stop crime. More people become skeptical of working with the police to solve and prevent crimes. And as they lose trust in the police and the justice system, more Americans resort to their own means, including violence, to settle conflicts.

A similar phenomenon played out in the mid-2010s. Widely publicized police killings of Black men in Ferguson, Mo.; Baltimore; Chicago; and elsewhere strained relations between the police and their communities, and murders increased.

Back then, murders declined after a couple of years, as tensions eased and officials tried to repair police-community relations and improve policing. The same seems to have happened in the last couple of years.

Not the ’60s

This outcome was not inevitable. The crime surge that began in the early 1960s also seemed connected to societal unrest. But rather than quickly reversing, it continued for decades. One potential difference is that back then the causes were more spread out: the civil-rights unrest of the 1960s; federal scandals, like Watergate, that reduced trust in government in the ’70s; and the crack-cocaine epidemic in the ’80s.

Crime is a complicated topic, and an explanation that seems correct in one moment can look less certain after years of scrutiny. There are usually crosscurrents, too. Car thefts, for instance, have remained significantly higher in recent months than they were a few years ago.

Still, we know that murders in large U.S. cities fell rapidly last year, and most other forms of crime seem to have fallen as well.

Related: Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist and friend of the newsletter, died this week at 75. Rosenfeld was a leading expert on what caused crime trends in the U.S. He helped found the criminology doctorate program at the University of Missouri-St. Louis.

Rosenfeld was an unusually clear communicator for someone of his expertise. He approached questions with an open mind, readily acknowledging that he did not have all the answers. He was also kind, often referring reporters to his less well known colleagues to give them a boost. You can read an obituary in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

THE LATEST NEWS

Republican Primary

• In the last debate before the Iowa caucuses, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley called each other liars and largely shied away from discussing Donald Trump.

• Trump skipped the debate again. He attended a Fox News town hall, where he took credit for overturning Roe v. Wade and suggested he’d chosen a running mate. Read takeaways from both events.

• Chris Christie dropped out without endorsing a rival. On a hot mic, he predicted that Haley would “get smoked.”

• Iowa voters discuss a question weighing on Republicans: Will they vote for Trump again?

Congress

• Two House committees voted along party lines to hold Hunter Biden, the president’s son, in contempt of Congress. Hunter Biden made a surprise appearance before the votes.

• Hard-line House Republicans blocked Republican bills in a protest over Speaker Mike Johnson’s deal with Democrats to avert a government shutdown.

• House Republicans began impeachment hearings against Alejandro Mayorkas, the homeland security secretary. They listed policy complaints about border security but no proof of impeachable offenses.

Trump Trials

• Lawyers in Trump’s civil fraud trial will present their closing arguments today.

• Nathan Wade was largely unknown when the district attorney Fani Willis selected him to lead the criminal case against Trump in Georgia. Now he is accused of being romantically involved with her.

Israel-Hamas War

• The U.N.’s top court began hearings today in a case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of committing genocide in the enclave.

• Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with the Palestinian Authority’s leader, Mahmoud Abbas, in the West Bank to discuss what role the authority might play after the conflict.

• A spokesman for Hamas said its hostages “will not be returned alive” unless Israeli forces leave Gaza.

International

• Taiwan is in the final days of its presidential election. Its campaign rallies are boisterous and flashy.

• The terrorist group Al Shabab captured a U.N. helicopter carrying nine passengers, after it made an emergency landing in an area the group controls.

• Ecuadoreans are divided over the government’s use of the military to crack down on violence after a gang leader disappeared from prison.

• Britain’s Post Office wrongly accused hundreds of branch managers of theft. After a TV drama about the scandal, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak plans to exonerate them.

• A ceremonial spot near a heavily secured courtroom is one of the few places in Guantánamo Bay where the U.S. allows cameras. See what that backdrop can tell you.

Tech

• Google laid off hundreds of workers, seeking to cut costs as it focuses on artificial intelligence. Amazon is also making hundreds of layoffs in its studio division.

• Education companies say A.I. chatbots will be personalized tutors for students. The hype may be premature.

• Federal regulators allowed the sale of a financial product that tracks the price of Bitcoin, which could bring more money into crypto.

Health

• A record number of Americans signed up for health insurance through the Affordable Care Act’s marketplaces, the Biden administration said.

• We’re in a big Covid wave. Tests on U.S. wastewater show just how big.

• Convenience stores are selling tianeptine, popularly known as gas-station heroin, as part of dietary supplements.

Religion

• The former cardinal Theodore McCarrick, the highest-ranking U.S. Catholic official to be prosecuted on charges of sexual abuse, was found not competent to stand trial.

• An illegal 60-foot tunnel under a Brooklyn synagogue left parts of two buildings potentially unstable, city officials said.

Other Big Stories

• Scientists are scrambling to maintain funding for a yearslong study of nearly 50,000 pet dogs that hopes to uncover insights about aging.

• Severe weather will again sweep the South, and blizzard conditions are forecast to hit the Midwest.

• A New York subway train went off the tracks, the system’s second derailment in less than a week.

Opinions

Biden needs to listen less to the pro-immigration Latino establishment and more to Latino voters, who want tighter border restrictions, Mike Madrid writes.

The best way to counter Beijing’s meddling in Taiwan’s elections is by calling attention to it, Nicholas Kristof writes.

Here is a column by Charles Blow on Biden’s campaign.

MORNING READS

For the ’gram: From the Brooklyn Bridge to a Florida beach, new ice rinks put an emphasis on looking great in photos.

Origins: Ancient skeletons give insights into illnesses like multiple sclerosis and schizophrenia.

Fallen riders: A Facebook page chronicles the deaths of dozens of bike workers who delivered food in New York City.

Lives Lived: Adan Canto was a Mexican actor known for his roles in “Designated Survivor” and “X-Men: Days of Future Past.” He died at 42 of cancer.

SPORTS

National champion: Nick Saban, Alabama’s football coach, stunned the sports world by retiring yesterday. He was “college football’s greatest coach,” Stewart Mandel writes.

N.F.L.: The Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll will not return next season after 14 seasons with the team.

N.B.A.: Victor Wembanyama, the San Antonio Spurs rookie, recorded his first triple-double against the Detroit Pistons.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Garden State: “The Sopranos” was a show about the mafia, about family, about watching the world pass you by as you age. It was also a show about New Jersey, and its creator, David Chase, insisted on filming there. To mark the 25th anniversary of the show’s premiere, Anna Kodé spoke with Chase and his location manager about the stories behind some of the settings — the family’s McMansion, Satriale’s pork store, even the Bada Bing strip club.

More on culture

• A California court ruled that a Pissarro painting should stay with a Spanish museum, not the family of a woman who was forced to surrender it to the Nazis.

• Elton John is downsizing in his Atlanta home: He’s auctioning 900 items, including costumes and a Banksy.

• Stephen Colbert joked about Trump’s civil fraud trial.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

Use up leftovers or wilted vegetables with this easy frittata.

Eat more salmon — it’s a nutritional powerhouse.

Improve your self-care routine.

GAMES

Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was rhythmic.

And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German

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