Tracking the Senate’s Most Competitive Races
Thirty-four Senate seats are up for election in November, but the balance of power in the chamber will likely be decided by eight of the most competitive races, according to the most recent ratings by the Cook Political Report. Currently Democrats hold a slim majority in the Senate, with four independent senators caucusing with the party.
Democrats and those who caucus with them currently sit in seven of the eight most competitive seats, including the Montana Senate seat, which is rated as Lean Republican. They would need to win seven of these seats to achieve an even partisan split in the Senate, with tie-breaking votes coming from the new vice president.
Tossup states
State | Candidates | 2020 pres. margin |
---|---|---|
Michigan | Slotkin D Rogers R | D +2.8 |
The fight is on to replace Senator Debbie Stabenow, a retiring Democrat. Mike Rogers, a mainstream Republican and former critic of Mr. Trump who later embraced him and won his endorsement, is facing Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat who has used her national security credentials to win over swing voters in Central Michigan since 2018. Her trick will be to keep those centrist voters and energize more liberal voters in and around Detroit. | ||
Ohio | Brown D Incumbent Moreno R | R +8.0 |
Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat in a solidly Republican state, has established an image as a stalwart supporter of working-class voters. Mr. Brown, the powerful chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, has also amassed a considerable war chest. Bernie Moreno, his opponent, was not the Ohio G.O.P. establishment’s choice. Instead, he was Mr. Trump’s pick. A wealthy Colombian-born businessman, Mr. Moreno's sizable fortune helped him seed fund-raising. | ||
Wisconsin | Baldwin D Incumbent Hovde R | D +0.6 |
Senator Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat, has been a low-key fixture in Wisconsin politics since her election to the State Assembly in 1992. Republicans have nominated Eric Hovde, a banker and businessman who can finance his own campaign. A late advertising blitz by Mr. Hovde and his Republican allies have narrowed the race and surprised Democrats, who had expected the party to shift resources elsewhere. |
Lean Democratic
State | Candidates | 2020 pres. margin |
---|---|---|
Arizona | Gallego D Lake R | D +0.3 |
Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s retirement has set up a contest between Representative Ruben Gallego, a progressive, and Kari Lake, a Trump favorite. Ms. Lake lost her race for governor in 2022 and then falsely claimed that her Democratic opponent stole her election. Mr. Gallego is less well known outside his Phoenix House district, but as a Latino with a Harvard pedigree and combat experience in Iraq with the Marine Corps, he has a compelling biography. | ||
Nevada | Rosen D Incumbent Brown R | D +2.4 |
In recent years, Nevada Democrats have profited off Republican voters’ penchant for nominating extreme candidates, but this year, party leaders rallied around Sam Brown, a newcomer with an extraordinary story. The West Point graduate nearly died in Afghanistan when a roadside bomb burned him and left him permanently scarred. Mr. Brown’s thin political résumé could help by making him difficult to label. Senator Jacky Rosen, the incumbent Democrat, isn’t flashy, but the power of incumbency matters. | ||
Pennsylvania | Casey D Incumbent McCormick R | D +1.2 |
The Keystone State may be a key battleground in the presidential election this year, but Senator Bob Casey, the Democratic incumbent, is an institution. His Republican opponent is David McCormick, the former chief executive of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds. Mr. McCormick lost the Republican Senate primary in 2022 to Mehmet Oz. |
Lean Republican
State | Candidates | 2020 pres. margin |
---|---|---|
Montana | Tester D Incumbent Sheehy R | R +16.4 |
Senator Jon Tester has defied the odds before, but his victories in 2006, 2012 and 2018 all came in strong Democratic cycles. His fight for a fourth Senate term will be considerably tougher, and he will need many ticket-splitters in a state that Mr. Trump won by 16 points in 2020. The Republican candidate, Tim Sheehy, is a decorated former Navy SEAL with the wealth to self-finance his campaign, as well as Mr. Trump’s backing. | ||
Texas | Allred D Cruz R Incumbent | R +5.6 |
This is one of just two races in which Democrats hope to play offense. Senator Ted Cruz, a Republican seeking his third term, has never been personally popular in his state, but Texas has been reliably Republican for decades. Democrats looking for a long-shot Senate pickup have turned to Representative Colin Allred, who is giving up his Dallas-area House seat to challenge Mr. Cruz. |
Likely Democratic
State | Candidates | 2020 pres. margin |
---|---|---|
Maryland | Alsobrooks D Hogan R | D +33.2 |
Maryland, which is reliably blue, should not be in play. But this race is one to watch because Larry Hogan, the moderate former Republican governor, has decided to run for the Senate seat of Ben Cardin, a Democrat who is retiring. Democrats nominated Angela Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County Executive who is a former state’s attorney. |
Likely Republican
State | Candidates | 2020 pres. margin |
---|---|---|
Florida | Mucarsel-Powell D Scott R Incumbent | R +3.4 |
Another rare contest where the Democratic candidate is on offense. Senator Rick Scott, a wealthy fixture of Florida politics who served for eight years as governor, has the high ground in seeking his second term. Democrats like their candidate, former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who served one term in the House after the 2018 blue wave, but it would likely take severe erosion of Mr. Trump’s support to put this seat in play. | ||
Nebraska | Osborn I Fischer R Incumbent | R +19.1 |
Nebraska is a red state, with an incumbent Republican, Deb Fischer, running for re-election. Her main opponent is not a Democrat but an independent, Dan Osborn, who led a strike at the Kellogg’s plant in Omaha in 2021 and is testing whether his pro-labor, working-class message can resonate at a time when the union movement is resurgent. |