Tracking the Swing States for Harris and Trump
The presidential race will most likely come down to voters in eight states that remain competitive, according to the most recent ratings by the Cook Political Report.
Solidly Democratic states
Solidly Republican states
270 electoral votes to win
Likely Dem.
Likely Rep.
These states are the most competitive in the race for the presidency.
Note: Nebraska and Maine each award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the top vote-getter in each congressional district. Nebraska’s Second District is rated as “Lean Democratic” by Cook Political Report.
There are many combinations of states that could put either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald J. Trump over the threshold of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
If both candidates win all of the states in their solid, likely and lean categories, the race would come down to the seven tossup states in yellow. Ms. Harris would need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win. Mr. Trump would need 51.
Recent changes
Six of the seven states rated as tossups were won narrowly by Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020. Of course, some of the states currently rated as leaning or likely Democratic or Republican could also come into play.
Tossup states
| State | Elec. votes | 2020 margin | 2024 polling |
|---|---|---|---|
Pennsylvania | 19 | D +1.2 | Harris <1 › |
The most important battleground state, Pennsylvania has the highest number of electoral votes. For either candidate, a path to victory without the state would be complicated. | |||
Georgia | 16 | D +0.2 | Trump <1 › |
After years of Republican dominance, the state’s rapidly growing and diversifying population helped lead to the narrowest of wins for President Biden in 2020 and to two Senate seats for Democrats in early 2021. | |||
North Carolina | 16 | R +1.3 | Trump <1 › |
Republicans have won the state in every presidential election since 2012. Some Republicans fear a scandal involving their party’s nominee for governor, Mark Robinson, could affect Mr. Trump’s chances. | |||
Michigan | 15 | D +2.8 | Harris <1 › |
Voters chose Mr. Trump in 2016, but Democrats have done well in statewide elections here since, including Mr. Biden's 2.8 percentage point win in 2020. | |||
Arizona | 11 | D +0.3 | Trump +1 › |
Mr. Trump has shown strength in the Sun Belt, in part because of his support among Hispanic voters. Democrats are hoping that a ballot measure codifying the right to abortion in the state will help drive turnout. | |||
Wisconsin | 10 | D +0.6 | Harris <1 › |
The state is a key component in Ms. Harris’s clearest path to victory — wins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. It has the potential to be the winning candidate’s “tipping-point” state (like it was in 2020), putting him or her over the top in the Electoral College. | |||
Nevada | 6 | D +2.4 | Harris <1 › |
The most diverse battleground state, Nevada has more registered nonpartisan voters than Democrats or Republicans, and Democrats have been winning presidential elections here by smaller and smaller margins. The relatively small number of electoral votes make it less likely to be decisive. | |||
Lean Democratic
| State | E.V. | 2020 |
|---|---|---|
1 | D +6.5 |
Lean Republican
Likely Democratic
| State | E.V. | 2020 |
|---|---|---|
13 | D +10.1 | |
10 | D +7.1 | |
5 | D +10.8 | |
4 | D +7.4 | |
2 | D +9.1 |
Likely Republican
| State | E.V. | 2020 |
|---|---|---|
40 | R +5.6 | |
30 | R +3.4 | |
1 | R +7.9 |
