Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump
Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump
Both Harris and Trump have states they can probably count on to get at least 200 electoral votes, but they need to get to 270 to win. Let’s zoom in on seven key states in the middle where the vote was closest in 2020.
If the polls change, or miss, in Trump’s favor
Trump could easily prevail if he gains ground in key states — or if the polls are already underestimating him. A shift or polling miss in his favor would not be uncommon, though of course that is not guaranteed.
In such a close race, even the slightest movement in the polls takes on outsize significance. For that same reason, even a modest error in the polls could yield a very different result. If the polls underestimate Trump yet again, even by a hair, he would easily win the Northern battleground states and therefore the presidency. But the opposite could be true: Polls underestimated Democrats in 2022, and Harris could win easily if they do that again, even slightly. Updated Oct. 14
States are shown in order of the closest current polling averages.
Swing states
| Election Results | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling Leader | 2020 | 2016 | |
| 6 E.V. | Harris <1 | D +2 | D +2 |
| 15 E.V. | Harris <1 | D +3 | R <1 |
| 16 E.V. | Trump <1 | R +1 | R +4 |
| 16 E.V. | Trump <1 | D <1 | R +5 |
| 10 E.V. | Harris <1 | D +1 | R +1 |
| 19 E.V. | Harris +1 | D +1 | R +1 |
| 11 E.V. | Trump +2 | D <1 | R +4 |
Other states
| Election Results | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling Leader | 2020 | 2016 | |
| 10 E.V. | Harris +6 | D +7 | D +2 |
| 40 E.V. | Trump +6 | R +6 | R +9 |
| 17 E.V. | Trump +7 | R +8 | R +8 |
| 30 E.V. | Trump +7 | R +3 | R +1 |
N.H. 4 E.V. | Harris +7 | D +7 | D <1 |
| 13 E.V. | Harris +8 | D +10 | D +5 |
| 5 E.V. | Harris +8 | D +11 | D +8 |
Neb. C.D. 2 1 E.V. | Harris +8 | D +6 | R +2 |
The biggest shifts in the average this past week were in Michigan and Wisconsin. And in this case, “biggest” does not mean “big.” Trump gained a single point according to our averages — the kind of movement that may feel seismic in such a closely divided and stable election, but wouldn’t be worthy of much note in previous cycles. It’s also a shift that’s small enough that one or two high-quality polls for Harris could quickly send her numbers back up. Updated Oct. 14
It’s normal for polls not to match the final results, sometimes by considerable amounts. The ranges in this chart represent the magnitude of each state’s biggest polling miss in recent elections, shown in relation to the current polling averages.
| Biggest recent polling miss | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pa. | 5 pts. (2022) | Range of polling miss |
| Wis. | 9 pts. (2020) | |
| Mich. | 6 pts. (2022) | |
| Nev. | 4 pts. (2012) | |
| N.C. | 6 pts. (2016) | |
| Ga. | 2 pts. (2016) | |
| Ariz. | 3 pts. (2022) |
In 2016 and 2020, the polls underestimated Trump. But in 2012 they underestimated the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and in 2022 Democrats outperformed polling averages in several key midterm races. Past polling misses can give a sense of the magnitude by which current averages could be wrong, but they are not a guarantee of which way today’s polls may be off.
Every poll here influences the averages above. Polls from “select pollsters,” which meet certain criteria for reliability, count for more and are shown with a diamond. You can filter by state and toggle to show only select pollsters.
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Polls by “select pollsters” are shown with a diamond. These pollsters have backgrounds that tend to mean they are more reliable. Also, polls that were conducted by or for partisan organizations are labeled, as they often release only results that are favorable to their cause.
This chart shows how the polling margin has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump.
In late July and August, Harris made steady gains. Those gains seem to have slowed, suggesting she’s mostly consolidated her potential support. Any additional gains won’t be easy. If even a consensus debate victory can’t move the needle, it’s hard to see what would give either candidate a meaningful edge in the polls over the final stretch. Updated Sept. 23
Arrows to the left indicate polling gains for Harris; to the right, for Trump.
| Current margin | polls | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | Harris +3 | 21 | |
| Pa. | Harris +1 | 10 | |
| Wis. | Harris <1 | 6 | |
| Mich. | Harris <1 | 5 | |
| Nev. | Harris <1 | 2 | |
| N.C. | Trump <1 | 2 | |
| Ga. | Trump <1 | 5 | |
| Ariz. | Trump +2 | 5 |
The past week’s data suggests that the race may have edged ever so slightly in Trump’s direction. It’s a small enough shift that it could just be statistical noise, but if additional polls showed the same thing, there would be a straightforward explanation: Harris’s modest post-debate bump has worn off with the passage of time and a hectic few weeks of news. Updated Oct. 14
About our polling averages
Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.
We also evaluate whether each pollster: Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling
These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology.
The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here.
Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and a single electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district. (Maine has two congressional districts, and Nebraska has three.) Historical election results for these districts are calculated based on votes cast within the current boundaries of the district.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.
Credits
By Cam Baker, Laura Bejder Jensen, Ademola Bello, Dana Chiueh, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, Andrew Park, Jaymin Patel, Ethan Singer and James Thomas.
